At 27, 2008 had the least number of land sales in this millenium. The number of sales has been increasing, with a slight exception between ’10 and ’11, since ’08. Here are the numbers from ’08 on:
2008 – 27
2009 – 30
2010 – 43
2011 – 39
2012 – 78
2013 – 94
2014 – 61 YTD
However, I don’t expect to see that upward trend to keep going for two reasons. One, between the conservation groups buying open land and being an island, so no urban sprawl, Nantucket is simply running out of developable vacant land. Two, the developers are in the midst of an incredible boom thus increasing demand. So, while supply is getting constrained, demand is getting pushed up, causing prices to go up. Soon, land prices will be too high for developers to make a profit. So, what is already starting to happen and I believe will become more pronounced as time goes on is the developers are buying properties with existing houses that they either tear down, move or renovate. The Nantucket cottages are quickly becoming a thing of the past.
Land will continue to sell, but I doubt we’ll ever have the 185+ sales like we had in 2004.
On a side note, $632mm closed this year. $368mm to go with only three months left; it’s going to be close!
